Silver price
Like most commodities, the price of silver is driven by speculation and supply and demand. Compared to gold, the silver price is notoriously volatile. This is because of lower market liquidity, and demand fluctuations between industrial and store of value uses. At times this can cause wide ranging valuations in the market, creating volatility.
Silver often tracks the gold price due to store of value demands, although the ratio can vary. The gold/silver ratio is often analyzed by traders, investors and buyers.In 1792, the gold/silver ratio was fixed by law in the United States at 1:15,[5] which meant that one troy ounce of gold would buy 15 troy ounces of silver; a ratio of 1:15.5 was enacted in France in 1803.[6] The average gold/silver ratio during the 20th century, however, was 1:47.[7] The lower the ratio/number, the more expensive silver is compared to gold. Conversely the higher the ratio/number, the cheaper silver is compared to gold.
| Year | Silver price (yearly cum. avg.[8])
US$/ozt | Gold price (yearly cum. avg.[9])
US$/ozt | Gold/silver
ratio |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1840 | 1.29 | 20 | 15.5 |
| 1900 | 0.64 | 20 | 31.9 |
| 1920 | 0.65 | 20 | 31.6 |
| 1940 | 0.34 | 33 | 97.3 |
| 1960 | 0.91 | 35 | 38.6 |
| 1970 | 1.63 | 35 | 22.0 |
| 1980 | 16.39 | 612 | 37.4 |
| 1990 | 4.06 | 383 | 94.3 |
| 2000 | 4.95 | 279 | 56.4 |
| 2005 | 7.31 | 444 | 60.8 |
| 2009 | 14.67 | 972 | 66.3 |
| 2010 | 20.19 | 1225 | 60.7 |
| 2011 (cum. thru 19 May) | 39.22 | 1510 | 38.5 |
From September 2005 onwards, the price of silver has risen fairly steeply, being initially around $7 per troy ounce but reaching $14 per ozt. for the first time by late April 2006. The monthly average price of silver was $12.61 per troy ounce during April 2006, and the spot price was around $15.78 per troy ounce on November 6, 2007. As of March 2008, it hovered around $20 per troy ounce.[10] However, the price of silver plummeted 58% in October 2008, along with other metals and commodities, due to the effects of the credit crunch.[11] By April 2011, silver had rebounded to reach a 31-year high hitting $49.21 per ounce on April 29, 2011 due to economic concerns about inflation and uncertainty regarding bailouts in the Eurozone. [12]
Factors influencing the price
Large traders or investors
The silver market is much smaller in value than the gold market. The London silver bullion market turns over 18 times less money than gold.[13] With physical demand estimated at only $15.2 billion per year, it is possible for a large trader or investor to influence the silver price either positively or negatively. For example:
From 1973 the Hunt brothers began cornering the market in silver, helping to cause a spike in January 1980 of the London Silver Fix to $49.45 per troy ounce, silver futures to reach an intraday all-time high of $50.35 per troy ounce and a reduction of the gold/silver ratio down to 1:17.0 (gold also peaked in 1980, at $850 per troy ounce).[14][15] In the last nine months of 1979, the brothers were estimated to be holding over 100 million troy ounces of silver and several large silver futures contracts.[16] However, a combination of changed trading rules on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and the intervention of the Federal Reserve put an end to the game. By 1982 the London Silver Fix had collapsed by 90% to $4.90 per troy ounce.[17]
In 1997,Warren Buffett purchased 130 million troy ounces (4,000 metric tons) of silver at approximately $4.50 per troy ounce (total value $585 million). On May 6, 2006, Buffett announced to shareholders that his company no longer held any silver.
In April 2006, iShares launched a silver exchange-traded fund, called the iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV), which as of November 2010 held 344 million troy ounces of silver as reserves.[18]
In April 2007, Commitments of Traders Report revealed that four or fewer traders held 90% of all short silver futures contracts totalling 245 million troy ounces, which is equivalent to 140 days of production. According to Ted Butler, one of these banks with large silver shorts, JPMorgan Chase, is also the custodian of the SLV silver ETF. Some silver analysis have pointed to a potential conflict of interest, as close scrutiny of Comex documents reveals that ETF shares may be used to "cover" Comex physical metal deliveries. This led analysts to speculate that some stores of silver have multiple claims upon them. On 25 September 2008 the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) relented and probed the silver market after persistent complaints of foul play.[19] On September 1, 2010, Bloomberg reported that JPMorgan Chase will be closing their Proprietary Trading Desk.[20]
Industrial, commercial and consumer demand
The traditional use of silver in photographic development has been dropping since 2000 due to the growth of digital photography.[21] However, silver is also used in electrical appliances (silver has the lowest resistivity of industrial metals), photovoltaics (one of the highest reflectors of light), RoHS compliant solder, clothing and medical uses (silver has antibacterial properties). Other new applications for silver include RFID tags, wood preservatives, water purification and food hygiene.[22] The Silver Institute have seen a noticeable increase in silver-based biocide products coming onto the market, as they explain:
Currently we’re seeing a surge of applications for silver-based biocides in all areas: industrial, commercial and consumer. New products are being introduced almost daily. Established companies are incorporating silver based products in current lines - clothing, refrigerators, mobile phones, computers, washing machines, vacuum cleaners, keyboards, countertops, furniture handles and more. The newest trend is the use of nano-silver particles to deliver silver ions.[23]
The expansion of the middle classes in emerging economies aspiring to Western lifestyles and products may also contribute to a long-term rise in industrial and jewelry usage.[24]
Hedge against financial stress
Silver, like all precious metals, may be used as a hedge against inflation, deflation or currency devaluation. As Joe Foster, portfolio manager of the New York-based Van Eck International Gold Fund, explained in September 2010:
The currencies of all the major countries, including ours, are under severe pressure because of massive government deficits. The more money that is pumped into these economies – the printing of money basically – then the less valuable the currencies become.[25]
Investment vehicles
Bars
A traditional way of investing in silver is by buying actual bullion bars. In some countries, like Switzerland and Liechtenstein, bullion bars can be bought or sold over the counter at major banks.
Physical silver, such as bars or coins, may be stored in a home safe, a safe deposit box at a bank, or placed in allocated (also known as non-fungible) or unallocated (fungible or pooled) storage with a bank or dealer. Silver is traded in the spot market with the
Various sizes of silver bars:
- 1000 oz troy bars – These bars weigh about 68 pounds avoirdupois (31 kg) and vary about 10% as to weight, as bars range from 900 ozt to about 1,100 ozt (28 to 34 kg). These are COMEX and LBMA good delivery bars.
- 100 oz troy bars – These bars weigh 6.8 pounds (3.11 kg) and are among the most popular with retail investors. Popular brands are Engelhard and Johnson Matthey. Those brands cost a bit more, usually about 40 cents to 2.00 dollars per troy ounce above the spot price, but that price may vary with market conditions.
- Odd weight retail bars – These bars cost less and generally have a wider spread, due to the extra work it takes to calculate their value and the extra risk due to the lack of a good brand name.
- 1 kilogram bars (32.15 oz troy)
- 10 oz troy bars and 1 oz troy bars (311 and 31.1 g)
Coins and rounds
Buying silver coins is another popular method of physically holding silver. One example is the 99.99% pure Canadian Silver Maple Leaf. Coins may be minted as either fine silver or junk silver, the latter being older coins with a smaller percentage of silver. U.S. coins 1964 and older (half dollars, dimes, and quarters) are 25 grams per dollar of face value and 90% silver (22½ g silver per dollar). All 1965-1970 and one half of the 1975-1976 Bicentennial San Francisco proof and mint set Kennedy half dollars are "clad" in a silver alloy and contain just under one half of the silver in the pre-1965 issues.
Junk-silver coins are also available as sterling silver coins, which were officially minted until 1919 in the United Kingdom and Canada and 1945 in Australia. These coins are 92.5% silver and are in the form of (in decreasing weight) Crowns, Half-crowns, Florins, Shillings, Sixpences, and threepence. The tiny threepence weighs 1.41 grams, and the Crowns are 28.27 grams (1.54 grams heavier than a US $1). Canada produced silver coins with 80% silver content from 1920 to 1967.
Other hard money enthusiasts use .999 fine silver rounds as a store of value. A cross between bars and coins, silver rounds are produced by a huge array of mints, generally contain a troy ounce of silver in the shape of a coin, but have no status as legal tender. Rounds can be ordered with a custom design stamped on the faces or in assorted batches.
Exchange-traded products
Silver exchange-traded products represent a quick and easy way for an investor to gain exposure to the silver price, without the inconvenience of storing physical bars. Silver ETPs include:
- iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV) launched by iShares is the largest silver ETF on the market with over 340 million troy ounces of silver in storage.[26]
- ETFS Physical Silver (LSE: PHAG) and ETFS Silver Trust (NYSE: SIVR) launched by ETF Securities.
- Sprott Physical Silver Trust NYSE: PSLV, TSX: PHS.U is a closed-end fund created by Sprott Asset Management. The initial public offering was completed on November 3, 2010.[27]
Certificates
A silver certificate of ownership can be held by investors instead of storing the actual silver bullion. Silver certificates allow investors to buy and sell the security without the difficulties associated with the transfer of actual physical silver. The Perth Mint Certificate Program (PMCP) is the only government-guaranteed silver-certificate program in the world.
The U.S. dollar has been issued as silver certificates in the past, each one represented one silver dollar payable to the bearer on demand. The notes were issued in denominations of $10, $5, and $1; however, since 1968, they can no longer be redeemed for physical silver.
Accounts
Most Swiss banks offer silver accounts where silver can be instantly bought or sold just like any foreign currency. Unlike physical silver, the customer does not own the actual metal but rather has a claim against the bank for a certain quantity of metal. Digital gold currency providers and internet bullion exchanges, such as BullionVault, offer silver as an alternative to gold. At least some of these companies do not allow investors to redeem their investment in actual silver.[28]
Derivatives, CFDs and spread betting
Derivatives, such as silver futures and options, currently trade on various exchanges around the world. In the U.S., silver futures are primarily traded on COMEX (Commodity Exchange), which is a subsidiary of the New York Mercantile Exchange. In November 2006, the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) in India introduced 5 kg silver futures.
Firms such as Cantor Index, CMC Markets, IG Index and City Index, all from the UK, provide contract for difference (CFD) or spread bets on the price of silver.
companies
These do not represent silver at all, but rather are shares in silver mining companies. Companies rarely mine silver alone, as normally silver is found within, or alongside, ore containing other metals, such as tin, lead, zinc or copper. Therefore shares are also a base metal investment, rather than solely a silver investment. As with all mining shares, there are many other factors to take into account when evaluating the share price, other than simply the commodity price. Instead of personally selecting individual companies, some investors prefer spreading their risk by investing in precious metal mining
Taxation
In many tax regimes, silver does not hold the special position that is often afforded to gold. For example, in the European Union the trading of recognized gold coins and bullion products is VAT exempt, but no such allowance is given to silver. This makes investment in silver coins or bullion less attractive for the private investor, due to the extra premium on purchases represented by the irrecoverable VAT (charged at 20% in the United Kingdom and 19% for bars and 7% for bullion products with face value, e.g. US Silver Eagle and Maple Leaf, in Germany).
Other taxes such as capital gains tax may apply for individuals depending on country of residence (tax status) and whether the asset is sold at increased value.
source: Wikipedia
